2006: Let’s Start With the Bad News

by Mike on November 10, 2005

in Politics

Pennsylvania is not looking good at this point. I know what you’re thinking if you have been following the trash polls that the MSM refers to as scientific, but Rasmussen is legit. He will allow Republicans to enter his sample size and he uses other variables to ensure a scientific sample.

It should be noted that a year out, this poll should be viewed as a mere starting point. Democrat Bob Casey Jr. starts out well because he his pro-life. (or so he claims). Pennsylvania is a state that is home to those lovable pro-life Catholics who would love to vote Democrat but haven’t been given a reason to do so in well over a decade. (think Karen Witiw all you PC alums). With only pro-abortion options at their disposal in the past, these Catholics had no problem voting for Santorum. Now the Democrats have nominated a pro-lifer.

The good news is that this campaign has barely started. Casey’s fall from this in 2002 offers a glimpse of just how bad of a campainger he is. Wait until our pro-life Democrat leaning friends learn that a pro-lifer who opposes strict constructionist judges (and he would, just like “pro-life” harry Reid) is actually pro-choice. Wait until Casey actually opens his mouth. For these reasons, rest assured that this race will tighten.

The clear advantage is with the Democrats on this one. Santorum can no longer count on pro-life economic liberals. Luckily, this will be an off-year election in a powder blue state, meaning that the lemmings turnout won’t be as consistent as ours. Neverthless, Santorum has some work to do.

CURRENT STATUS: Leans Democrat (despite the 2o point gap)

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

Cannon November 10, 2005 at 8:42 pm

Good analysis of Pennsylvania voters. One thing to keep in mind:

As PA is a “powder blue” state, dems will sink gabillions into challenging the state’s two republican senators. For anyone who takes these challenges seriously, I have two words: Arlen Specter.

There is still 12 months to go, and Casey is running against an incumbent who is not running against him yet.


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