So Who Won?

by Ryan on August 14, 2006

in Politics

In my opinion, like most things that the UN gets its filthy mitts on, no one really wins, despite the rhetoric from both sides. Here’s my point of view:

  1. The kidnapped Israeli soldiers have still not been released, which is kind of important since that’s what started this mess.
  2. Hezbollah thinks they’ve won, so don’t expect them to stop putting themselves directly between Israeli weapons and the Lebanese people now flooding back to their homes.
  3. Cease-fires have historically benefited Israel’s enemies.
  4. UN cease-fires have rarely been enforced (1559 for example–PDF file). Notice the first paragraph for a list of failed UN attempts on this very same border region, dating back to 1978.
  5. It’s been muttered that Iran/Syria/Hezbollah’s plan has been to wear Israel down while ciphening off American influence and pull in the process. No big battlefields, just an annoying perpetual buzz in Israel’s ear.

I can see this cease-fire ending at any point– tomorrow or in a year. But it will end unless the UN can enforce its own resolutions (bang-up job on 1441, by the way), the international community shows resolve, and if someone (read the USA) calls out Iran and Syria on their involvement, creating international pressure for those nations to stop their funding. Bush says Israel won, but with no real lasting peace in front of us right now, I can’t agree.

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Chris August 14, 2006 at 10:57 pm

Honestly, I’m not too pleased with the fact the cease-fire has gone into effect and I believe this is not only a defeat for Israel, but for those of us fighting on the “good side” in the War on Terror. We are all very familiar with the history of the UN and their inability to enforce any resolution. This cease-fire will have wide range implications:

1) During this “cease-fire,” the Hezbos will re-arm and in a very short time, the Katushyas will again fly into and threaten Israel.

2) “Syran” (Syria and Iran) will work deeper in the shadows, as a result of the US’s inability to call them out and may even provide them with more advanced weapondry to destroy Israel, making the Hezbos stronger.

2) Olmert’s Govnerment and the Kadima Party will fall. Olmert’s handling of the war is already being criticized by Israelis and to be honest, they are correct in their criticisms. As history has taught us, a military must use its full resources to achieve full success…the allied powers did this in WWII, but the Americans did not in Vietnam, and Olmert would have been wise to analyze the blunders of the Johnson Administration and prevent against the same mistakes.

3) Elections in Israel: After the pending No Confidence vote the Knesset will give Olmert, a new prime minister will be elected and while I hope, pray and have confidence that Netanyahu (who, by the way, was classy in not crticizing Olmert on H&C the other night) will be prime minister again, there is always the chance the Labor Party could win, especially when the perennial loser and “Ragin’ Cajun” do consulting for them, as they did in bringing Barak to power in 1999.

4) The influence of Al-Sadr in Iraq: As we know, Muqtada al-Sadr is a Shi’ite, as are the Hezbos. They look at the cease-fire as a win and will back a more radical leader, creating problems for the Iraqi government and American military. If that does happen, I hope the American military will do to him what they did to al-Zarkawi .

4) Credibility to the left: While we know the truth that liberals are wrong in that they believe peace to be an absence of conflict, many in the world do not believe this, which is part of the reason why they were quick to criticize Israel for defending herself. Those who do not readily follow news and believe this theory will then begin to side with the left, which in our country could have disasturous implications, especially this November.

The events of this weekend are a setback for the War on Terror and I truly hope for the positives I mentioned (there really aren’t many, just a Netanyahu Administration and a possibility of al-Sadr assuming room temperature) to occur. We’ll be keeping an eye on the Mideast for sure.


rightonoz August 15, 2006 at 10:10 pm

You both hit this one square on the head.

Half-assed military interventions and then a back down cease-fire only make the job more difficult next time.


Anonymous August 16, 2006 at 8:23 am

I feel great knowing France will be helping out….


mct August 16, 2006 at 8:42 am

Is returning the Israeli prisoners a condition of the cease fire? And WHY do other countries continue to mess with Israel? They are relentless when defending their own (with which I have no problem). Just curious.

Chris, maybe you should send the facts you listed to someone in DC and to the Israeli government. CC the UN on it. Apparently, no one has done their homework.


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