Michael Barone’s Projections (House)

by Mike on October 25, 2006

in Politics

Predictions are a difficult business. This is especially true in politics. This is especially true when it comes to the House of Representatives. This is especially true in a year when you have an avalanche of Democrat-oversampled media push polls designed to depress conservative turnout.

I’ve been told many times that I have a pretty good track record when it comes to predicting the outcomes of elections, but I will not even venture a guess when it comes to this year’s House races because I have been fairly inattentive to the big picture. Rather than pontificating on something I know little about, I’ll provide a link to Michael Barone’s projections.

If you choose to follow only one political prophet, follow Barone. His track record on political fortune telling is second to none. In 1994, Barone was the first pundit to suggest that Republicans could win control of the House for the first time in 40 years. He was also the first pundit to comment on President Bush outperforming exit polls on Election Night 2004. No one can predict the future, but no one comes closer than Michael Barone.

Using a combination of polling data, trends, and his own experience, Barone estimates an outcome of 219 seats for Democrats to 216 for the Republicans. Basically, it’s too close to call. Conservatives, make sure you vote!

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

Ryan October 25, 2006 at 4:31 pm

I love Michael Barrone. Barrone also thinks that Bush is likely to be viewed by history as a transitional president like Truman– hated at the time, but respected in the annals of history.

Anyway, I’ve found that Barrone pulls no punches and is straight forward (and usually right) about what to expect. That he sees a slim Dem victory in the House scares me, but also gives me hope that the close vote may go the Republican’s way. If so, unfortunately, it’ll only embolden the moderates to wimp out.

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