Sal’s Election-day Predictions

by Sal on November 7, 2006

in Politics

I’ve been toying with the idea of doing election-day predictions for days, and was undecided until this morning. Truth is, I’ve always had opinions on the subject, being a student of politics, and never a forum. Since this is the first election cycle that I have a forum to do so, I will make my election-day predictions, for better or worse. Feel free to comment.

Senate Races

Arizona: No-brainer, Kyl (Republican Retention).

Tennessee: Corker will pull this one off with a comfortable margin. He’s pulled ahead of the 50% mark in the past few weeks, making this one look safe for the Republicans. (Republican Retention)

Rhode Island: As much as it pains me, Chaffee will get another 6 years in the Senate. He was counted out in the Laffee primary, but then pulled ahead. Recent polls have placed +/- within the margin of error. The Republican ground campaign should push him over the edge. (republican Retention).

Maryland: This one is my sleeper pick of the year. Steele has run a great campaign, and the endorsement of Steele by prominent leaders of the Black community in recent days will give Steele a bump that is not measured in polls. (Republican Pick-up)

Virginia: This one is tough. I like Allen, and think that he does have a shot, but I think he’s run a horrible campaign. He’s oscillating back and forth so much, I just think that Webb will have it. (Democrat Pick-up)

Montana: Burns was all but written off by almost everyone. Now, he’s within striking distance. The momentum is with him, and undecideds seem to be breaking to him. I think he takes this race (Republican Retension).

Missouri: The stem-cell controversy will help propel Talent to a very close victory over Claire McCaskill. I place this race as the most likely to enter litigation after the fact. (Republican Retention)

New Jersey: Keane has been stalling, and Corzine’s popularity is up. Look for this one to go to the Dems. (Democratic Retention)

Pennsylvania: Rick Santorum deserves much better. He is one of the few real leaders in the Senate. He’s the right Senator in the wrong state. I do think that he’ll do much better than the polls anticipate, bringing his margin of loss to within 5. (Democratic Pick-up)

Minnesota: This one is a no-brainer. Klobuchar’s lead is consistently in double-digits. (Democratic Retention).

Washington: What looked like a potential Republican pick-up early, has turned into a runaway race for Cantwell. (Democratic Retention).

Michigan: Karl Rove yesterday said that this race would surprise and that Mike Bouchard had a shot. I frankly don’t see it, but the architect has been right before. I still pick this one for the Dems. (Democratic Retention).

Ohio: Stick a fork in DeWine, he’s done. With the anti-Republican mood in Ohio, he can forget it. (Democratic Pick-up).

Final Analysis: Republicans +1, Democrats +3. Net gain +2 for Democrats.
Final Senate Breakdown: 53 R, 45 D, 2 I. I know this is optimistic, but that’s how I see it at this point.

House of Representatives: I’m not going to go into an analysis of each individual race up for grabs. Suffice to say, there are about 65 seats “in-play”. Of these, Democrats need a net-gain of 15 seats (keeping in mind that 11 of the 65 are Democrat-held seats). With the tightening of the generic ballot and the general distrust I have lately for polls, pundits and predictions, I’m going to predict that the Democrats gain +12 seats, leaving the Republicans nominally in control by 3 seats. I also fully expect the final results of the house not to be known for days.

Finally, to all readers of Axis of Right, get out and vote, even if you feel it doesn’t matter. Elections can have surprises, as in 2000. We need to continue the revolution begun in 1980 with the election of Ronald Reagan. Go vote!

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

Ryan November 7, 2006 at 11:16 am

I’m pretty much with you on these picks, Sal. However, if I’m not mistaken, gay marriage is on the ballot in VA. If so, I don’t think that the conservatives in that state will stay home and let that happen. They may very well turn out to vote for Allen. I say that with fingers crossed, though.

Also, it’s raining today in TN, VA and MD. It’s also clouding in NJ. This could very well keep some Dems away because of soccer mom inconvenience and a less motivated base. Any little bit counts I suppose (though that may sound like desperation, I say it with jest).

I told Mike the other day that I have a very 1996 feel about this election. Is it a case of false hope because of the polling or just a sense that we’ll lose and I don’t want to admit it. One thing is certain. Turnout will determine this election.

Reply

Mike November 7, 2006 at 1:51 pm

My predictions are also similar. My disagreements are in Virginia and Missouri.

After recovering from Macaca, Allen indeed ran a poor campaign. However, the fading red state of Virginia is still a red state who will gag at the mere mention of Mr. Webb’s writings. Allen also has a strong record that won’t be forgotten. Too close comfort though.

I have a bad feeling about Missouri. McCaskill came awfully close to becoming Governor in 2004. It is much easier for a minority party within a state to carry a state in an off-year (Admittedly, this also helps Mr. Webb). Since she came so close last time, I think she may pull it off.

On the bright side, McCaskill has been unable to consistently break 48 percent. My hope is that she is MO’s version of Myrth York, a candidate who no matter how well she campaigned could never break a certain ceiling. I doubt it though.

I think the Dems demogogued the cloning initiative well enough to give McCaskill the win. Close though.

Dems gain 2 in the Senate and 22 in the House.

Reply

Ryan November 7, 2006 at 2:17 pm

Myrth York’s a MAN, baby, a MAN!!!

Anyway, I think conventional wisdom holds that not every close seat will break Republican. Talent seems vulnerable, as does Burns in that regard. Kean’s lost– he’s completely turned off the conservative base (however small) in NJ.

Swami-time!
Senate: 52 Rep 46 Dems 2 Ind
House: Dems win 225– no landslide for our liberal friends.

Also, have you noticed the web-lines… voter fraud allegations, machines not working, people being locked out. Watch them all disappear if there’s a Dem sweep.

Reply

Chris November 7, 2006 at 3:45 pm

My guess: Dems +2 in the Senate and the House will hold with a 3 seat majority.

I agree: the voter fraud claims will disappear if the Dems sweep, but you can see their setting up their scapegoat. We’ll never see the Democrats blame themselves for a loss.

Reply

Leave a Comment

You can use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Previous post:

Next post: