Overlooking the Obvious

by Mike on September 6, 2007

in Election 2008,Politics

The Baltimore Sun is positively giddy over the latest poll showing She Who Must Not Be Named leading various Republicans in a hypothetical general election matchup in Ohio. The lead example was her seven point lead over Rudy Giuliani, up from dead even last month. The Sun takes this as evidence of Ohio trending toward the Democrats, and by default toward SWMNBN.

I don’t deny that Ohio probably is trending toward the donkeys at this point thanks to the incompetent Ohio GOP. That said, the Sun is missing something really obvious about this survey. I’m sure most of you have heard this before because it’s political science 101: polls are more indicative of public opinion when taken some time after Labor Day because people don’t pay attention to politics during the summer.

If SWMNBN is tied with a Republican candidate at the beginning of August, and leads the same Republican candidate at the beginning of September, that is not evidence of an oncoming Democrat tidal wave. It’s evidence of the fact that people have a higher opinion of SWMNBN when they aren’t paying any attention to her. This is no surprise. Whether the issue is her desire to confiscate other people’s hard-earned dollars, centralize health care in the hands of an inefficient government, undermine a war effort she voted to authorize, or support legalized abortion at any time by any method for any reason, SWMNBN will have lots of screeching . . . er, explaining to do when she needs to ask non-New Yorkers to vote for her.

As for this poll, I’m not impressed.

AP photo

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