Believe It Or Not, It’s Still Early

by Mike on November 30, 2007

in Election 2008,Politics

With the Iowa Caucuses scheduled for January 3, 2008, we are now less than five weeks away from the first votes being cast for the next President of the United States, whoever he may be. With that in mind, it might be useful to take a look at some polls. Polls from 2004 that is.

The following are some polls that were taken approximately six weeks before the 2004 Iowa Democrat Caucus. As you’ll see, Kerry was just starting to get on people’s radar and Polly Prissy Pants was even further behind.

Pew Poll: (December 3, 2003)

Howard Dean: 29%
Dick Gephardt: 21%
John Kerry: 18%
John “Polly Prissy Pants” Edwards: 5%

Zogby Poll (December 2, 2003)

Howard Dean 42%
Dick Gephardt 22%
John Kerry 9%
John “Polly Prissy Pants” Edwards 5%

Actual Results (January 19, 2004 Iowa caucus)

John Kerry 38%
John “Polly Prissy Pants” Edwards 32%
Howard Dean 18%
Dick Gephardt 11%

As we now know, John Kerry edged out the Silkster in Iowa while Dean screamed his way into infamy. Now, let’s take a look at New Hampshire.

American Research Group (December 17, 2003)

Howard Dean 45%
John Kerry 20%
Wesley Clark 8%
Joe Lieberman 6%
Dick Gephardt 3%
John “Polly Prissy Pants” Edwards 2%

WBZ-TV Boston Globe-Democrat Poll (December 14, 2003)

Howard Dean 42%
John Kerry 19%
John “Polly Prissy Pants” Edwards 7%
Joe Lieberman 5%

Actual Results (January 27, 2004 New Hampshire primary)

John Kerry 39%
Howard Dean 26%
Wesley Clark 13%
John “Polly Prissy Pants” Edwards 12%

Even with only five weeks until the first votes are cast, it is still way too early to predict this thing. That is of course, on the Republican side. The Democrat primary is more like a coronation for She Who Must Not Be Named.

{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }

wickle December 1, 2007 at 1:32 am

Of course, you’re right. There’s still time for the Libertarian upset.

(Insert hysterical laughter here.)

It is worth remembering that. Those of us in the Huckabee camp have been reciting this kind of thing for a while, but even we get caught up in daily tracking polls as if polls in November have much of anything to do with the final outcome.

Thanks for the reminder.


steffielynn December 4, 2007 at 5:25 pm

I hope this will mean that Romney will win :)


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