Election Soothsaying

by Mike on May 21, 2008

in Election 2008,Politics

Election years always bring out the fortune teller in all of us. From amateur bloggers, to professional journalists, to not-so-professional journalists, everyone who closely follows the news tries to figure out who is going to win the election. To the credit of all those I just described (maybe even Chris Matthews), most informed people who try to predict political outcomes do so by analyzing real news events and what the candidates say.

One thing that always bugged me during election years comes from the types who seriously believe that a Presidential election really hinges upon things like the last Packers game before the election or which hemline length is in fashion. With that in mind, I was pleased to see that the Anchoress posted on this very topic.

My favorite part of the post was when she ridiculed astrologers generally as well as the recent batch of astrologers who boldly predicted an Obama victory while simultaneously backpedalling by acknowledging the fact that anything can happen:

Well, there is a reason why “things turn on a dime” is a cliche. It’s because things turn on a dime and anything can happen. I don’t even know if any of the three stooges currently dominating the process will be on the ballot in November, and I have as much chance of being right about that as these folks do. I know the astrologers all predicted John Kerry would win in ‘04. That didn’t work out. One did – I recall – suggest that the 2000 election would be “confused” but then again, everyone was doing spooky-twilight-zone music in 2000, for the start of the millennium in 2001.

The Anchoress’ post sums up my thoughts on this topic, but much more eloquently than I would have put it. It’s a worth a read.

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