Looking Bad for Obama

by Sal on September 15, 2008

in Election 2008,Politics

It is beginning to look bad for Barack Obama.  The last three days of Rasmussen polling have John McCain at 49-50% for the first time since Obama became the presumptive Democrat nominee.  The Rasmussen poll is a 3-day rolling tracking poll of Likely voters, and the polling occured after the Sarah Palin interviews with Charlie Gibson.  As most political scientists will tell you, when a candidate is at/over 50%, it spells trouble for the opposition.  Most other polls show the race either tied or with a McCain lead.  John McCain, in the last 2+ weeks, has turned this election upside down with the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin.  Whether this holds or not is still undetermined, but as of right now, team Obama has an uphill battle to climb. 

McCain is also polling well in most of the battleground states.  McCain is showing a consistant lead in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia, although trailing in Colorado and showing razor-thin leads in recent polling in New Mexico and Nevada.

Even more worrisome to Obama than the national polls and the battleground states, however, are a recent round of state polling that puts what are otherwise traditionally blue states in-play, such as Michican, Peensylvania, Minnesota, Wisconson, and Washington State.  There’s even some anecdotal chatter about the liberal bastion of New York State! If Obama loses even one of these states, it is likely that he will lose the election. 

Although the election results are far from certain, and anything can happen in the next 50+ days, the trend is towards McCain/Palin.  Team Obama will have to do some serious work to reverse that trend.

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

anunlovedone September 15, 2008 at 10:56 am

“The Rasmussen poll is a 3-day rolling tracking poll of Likely voters

Obama (and Clinton) registered millions of new voters in the primaries. Those are not represented in Rasmussen polls. ;)

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Sal September 15, 2008 at 11:10 am

John Kerry did as well in 2004, but thoes voters did not show up on election day. Truth is, election after election, likely voters is the most accurate indicator. Even in the registered voter polls, McCain is ahead of Obama, sometimes by even more than the Rasmussen Poll.

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Ryan September 15, 2008 at 2:45 pm

Adding to Sal’s point, there is no indication that those who voted in the primaries for Obama or She Who Must Not Be Named are actually all enthusiastic new Democrats.

Some may be. Yet, I’m willing to bet that many of them probably signed up and voted because the Republicans had already selected their nominee and they just wanted to be a part of something on primary day. Plus, many of those new Democrat voters voted for SWMNBN because they didn’t like Obama. They will probably be easier to peel off in the general because of that. Or as Sal points out, they may not even show up.

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Mike September 15, 2008 at 10:07 pm

Pollsters are well aware of new voters and how to measure how likely they are to vote. They are also well aware of “the record numbers of new voters” that appear every four years. If I’m running for office, I’d rather be ahead of likely voters than younger voters who don’t vote.

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