Obama’s Debate Bounce

by Mike on September 30, 2008

in Election 2008,Media Bias,Politics

We could follow hastily concocted debate-night tracking polls or even overanalyze focus groups with minuscule sample sizes; or we could take a look at today’s tracking polls to see where John McCain and Barack Obama stand today relative to where they did before. Today is the day to do this because today is the first day when all of the valid tracking polls were conducted entirely after the first debate.

I’m using Saturday as the pre-debate number since the overwhelming majority interviews were conducted before the debate (remember: it ended at 10:30 p.m. on the east coast). Well, here’s the before and after.

GALLUP

Post-Debate (September 30, 2008)
Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Pre-Debate (September 27, 2008)

Obama 49%
McCain 44%

RASMUSSEN REPORTS

Post-Debate (September 30, 2008)
Obama 50%
McCain 44%

Pre-Debate (September 27, 2008)

Obama 51%
McCain 45%

BATTLEGROUND (WARNING: PDF FILE)

Post-Debate (September 30, 2008)

Obama 48%
McCain 46%

Pre-Debate (September 27, 2008)

McCain 48%
Obama 46%

The media tells us the debate was a tie and therefore Obama won. If we take the media at their word, stop laughing, taking them at their word, Obama’s debate triumph should have caused his lead to spike. Unfortunately for them, Obama received only a one point bump in Gallup, four points in Battleground, and ZERO in Rasmussen.

But wait, there’s more. The media also tells us that the financial crisis and Palin’s “gaffes” also help Obama. No spike though. What gives?

Could it be that McCain really won the debate, thereby mitigating Obama’s crisis bump? Could it be that McCain’s handling of the crisis mitigated his um, tie in the debate. Could it be that Sarah Palin’s gaffes pale in comparison to Joe Biden’s? It could be that the media is simply full of crap.

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