Mike’s 2008 Election Predictions

by Mike on November 3, 2008

in Election 2008,Politics

As much as it pains me, I predict that Barack Obama will be the next President of the United States.    That’s not to say tomorrow’s outcome is a foregone conclusion.  Many of the battleground states will be close.  It’s just that McCain has to take most of them and that will be a tall order.  Obama’s money advantage coupled with the embarassingly friendly media advantage will probably be too much for McCain to overcome.

The one hope for McCain right now is Obama’s gaffe on coal that came out too late for the polls to measure.  If people are listening, McCain has a real shot.  Unfortunately, it may have been too late.

A number of states are a extremely difficult to predict because state polling has been woefully unscientific this year.  However, the three of us decided to fill in a map so here is my best guess of how it will end.

Many of the states could go either way and unfortunately most of them are light red states.  I see McCain winning close races in Nevada and Missouri, but if either fall, so will McCain.

Ultimately, five states in four categories will tell us all we need to know.  I think any one of these states could legitimately go either way, but since I’m forced to call them, here are my thoughts.

  • Florida: Florida is a must win for McCain and probably his best state in this group.  Credible polls show a tight race either way, but Florida is normally a red state.  The southern part of the state will turn out its Democrats, but the conservative leanings should be enough for McCain to hold on.  Popular NYC endorsements from Rudy Giuliani and Joe Lieberman won’t hurt either.
  • Ohio:  Maybe it’s ACORN.  Maybe it’s the Secretary of State.  Maybe it’s the prospect of some rogue federal judge extending voting times in Cleveland but nowhere else.  Whatever it is, I have a bad feeling about Ohio.  Conservatives in the southern part of this red state will turn out in force, probably because of Sarah Palin.  In a year when Obama wins the popular vote however, I can see the state falling.  Call it blue.
  • Pennsylvania:  This light blue state should be solidly for Obama, especially when Zero is leading in the national polls.  Thankfully, Obama insulted Pennsylvanians in the primary when he called them bitter, gun and religion clingers.  This, coupled with Jack Murtha calling them racists have softened up Dem-leaning voters into considering McCain.  The state polls coming out of PA were woefully unscientific this year and I expect it to be close.  Hopefully, Obama/Biden and coal resonates in the closing hours.  McPalin keep it close, but Obama wins it.
  • Virginia and Colorado together: Virginia was the most poorly polled state in the nation this year.  Poll after poll showed an Obama lead in high single digits or even double digits by oversampling Democrats in one instance by 20 points.  The reputable Mason-Dixon poll showed Obama leading by 3 points with a projected 47% of the vote.  In a state that Jim Webb carried with only 51% in a landslide Democrat year, I don’t see 47% as enough.  McCain wins Virginia.  As for Colorado, Zero has been consistently ahead by about 5.  Colorado polls have been quirky before, most notably in 2002 when Allard underpolled.  I don’t see that happening this year though.  Zero wins CO.

McCain wins the election if he pulls off FL plus two of the three other categories.  That’s because if these states go McCain, we won’t have to worry about states like MO and NV which will fall into place.  If Obama takes most in these four categories however, then we may need to worry about states like NC and maybe IN.  At that point, it won’t matter though because it will be landslide territory.  The bottom line is that these five states will tell us all we need to know.  I think they’re all close right now, bit I see Zero winning the night.  Pray that the coal workers are watching!

Popular Vote:  Obama wins 51-47.

Senate Races: (Democrats Gain 6)

Democrats Gain:  Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Alaska.

Republicans Gain: Louisiana.

House Races: (Democrats Gain 21) (Wild Guess)

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