Ryan’s 2008 Election Predictions

by Ryan on November 3, 2008

in Election 2008,Politics

Twenty-four hours from now I will have voted for the vastly superior McCain-Palin ticket and be sitting in my car on my way back to my home state of Rhode Island, getting ready for a tasty birthday dinner at my parents’ before going to watch the election results at my brother’s place in North Kingstown.  

As such, now is the best time for me to make my official prediction on the 2008 Election.

I expect I will not have a very good birthday present tomorrow from the national electorate.  I am unfortunately predicting:

  • An Obama victory as he wins over 270 by 11:30pm (EST) tomorrow night (EV = 320-218).
  • A roughly 57-member Democrat Senate
  • Democrat increases in the House by as much as 15-20 (up to around the 250 mark).

Here’s more:

  • I’m giving Obama all the 2004 Blue states plus Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa, which gives Obama +21 from Kerry’s 2004 showing. 
  • I’m also giving Obama the edge (fair or unfair) in Ohio.
  • Since the Obama organization has so saturated the ground-game and airwaves in Florida’s key counties recently, I can’t give Florida to McCain this time around.  Altogether with Ohio that’s another +47 from Bush Red States.
  • Obama will get over 50% of the popular vote, making him the first Democrat to get a majority since Jimmah Carter back in 1976.
  • Riots.  Whether Obama wins or loses, there will unfortunately be riots/looting out there.  I hate to even write that, but truthfully, if we tear up Downtown when our baseball team wins, how are we going to treat Downtown when Obama wins… or loses?  Good luck to our law enforcement officials tomorrow night — they’ll need it, especially in Chicago, though I hope everyone goes home after they vote.

When we see Florida go to Obama, the rest of the night will be painful to watch, such that by 11:30pm or so we’ll be able to go to bed knowing who the President is for the first time in 12 years.  If Virginia ends up going Obama earlier than Florida, the heavy drinking will commence in earnest as my first moments in an Obama Nation will be a blissful birthday blur. 

So why am I so gloomy? 

I’m not predicting a realigning blowout-type election, just a decisive one.  This doesn’t feel like 1996, when Dole was definitely going to lose but I was too young, inexperienced, and naive enough to look past the logic.  Yet, it doesn’t feel very promising either.

In this current election cycle I think that McCain still has too much to do — like a football team that gets the momentum too late in the game (if only there was one more quarter!).  McCain needs to win every tight race everywhere and I just don’t think he does it.  I know that there are still many undecideds in the polling data and the polls themselves are flawed to varying degrees, but McCain’s either down in the swing states or within the margin of error in all of them.  He can’t win them all and even if he gets most of the undecideds tomorrow night, that’s still not likely to happen in every one of the important contests for victory.

I also cannot believe that ALL the polls are wrong, that ALL the swing states are doable and that ALL the Republicans turn out the way I hope.  McCain needs all those variables in play and maybe more.  Putting on my logic cap, it’s all too much to hope for in this current anti-Republican, economically unsettled climate. 

HOWEVER:  This is all a moot point, right?  If Diebold comes through again in Ohio, we suppress the black vote in Florida again, and send Karl Rove into the Pennsylvania suburbs to lie-cheat-and-steal the election there this time, we could pull it off!  Otherwise, the Left might have to infer that 2000 and 2004 might have been legit, which would run anathma to everything they’ve been saying and doing for eight years — complaining that Gore beat Bush by 600,000 votes nationally, but willing to embrace a potential Kerry win in Ohio when Kerry lost the national popular vote by 3 million. 

If McCain does pull it off somehow, I still think Obama beats him in the popular vote.  Since 1980, every Republican candidate who has run as a moderate or was labelled as such has lost.  Alas, McCain will be the next on that list from my point of view.  I hope I’m wrong.

Good luck to McCain-Palin!

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

Chris November 3, 2008 at 8:57 pm

OK…I’m always the first one willing to take a stand on any issue, but on this, I just don’t know what is going to happen. I’m optimistic by nature but I just can’t believe that Americans can be so blind to the lack of experience of this guy, his shady associations and his Socialist leanings. It pains me to hear a major canididate insult the non-urban residents of a very large state, attempt to destroy a major sector of the American economy and introduce a European Style Socialism this country has never seen.

I was phone banking this weekend (I lost my voice as a result) and have noticed one thing: NJ has forgotten about 9/11 and the horrors that have befallen our state (most of my phone-banking was centered around Middletown, an historically Republican community that could be defined as swing today, that also lost the 2nd most number of residents in the state on 9/11…Hoboken being the most). The sad thing many Americans realize is that if we don’t have our government keeping us safe (the fact that we haven’t been attacked since 9-11 is NO mistake), economy, social issues, etc, don’t matter because they won’t be issues in the end if we are attacked and are faced with showing survival instincts.

I have been praying for McCain and Palin to win this thing and notice that there has been a turning tide. If you force me to make a choice I have to go with Salinger’s map. McCain I think will pull out PA (he’s opened his mouth up too much to pull this through), FL (the I-4 corridor and the Panhandle will help McCain), OH (south and central OH…thanks Joe the Plumber) and VA (the rest of the state will cancel out Fairfax/Arlington/Loudoun). Even though, I am prepared to accept the prospect of an Obama win (got a lot of Sam on ice and ready), but will be very, very scared and concerned about the next four years and our economy, our safety and our rights given to us under the First and Second Amendments.

Say your prayers and hope that McCain and Pain could pull this thing off.


Mike November 3, 2008 at 8:59 pm

You lifted my spirits Chris.


Matt November 3, 2008 at 10:09 pm

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