Sal’s 2008 Election Predictions

by Sal on November 3, 2008

in Election 2008,Politics

Mike, Ryan, and I will be posting our election-day predictions between now and tomorrow morning.  This first installment covers my predictions for Election Day 2008. 


Looking at the polls, I think that the punditry is at minimum overestimating Democrat strength and discounting the current large number of undecideds found in several polls.  While I think an Obama victory is a huge possibility, there is enough data out there (including a series of close Mason-Dixon polls which all contain a large number of undecideds).  I predict a McCain victory with 286 electoral votes, to Obama’s 252. 



My analysis on the battleground states: 

  • Colorado:  This state has been trending blue over the last four years, and I can see it flipping to Obama. 
  • New Mexico:  Was for Gore in 2000, and Bush in 2004, I see it going back to Obama in 2008. 
  • New Hampshire:  Possible for McCain to grab this one, but Obama’s leads are too consistent and not close enough for me to flip it to McCain.
  • Virginia:  In spite of the Democrat surge in 2006, it was a bad GOP year all around and I don’t see this state going blue quite yet.  There is a large number of newly-registered voters in heavy GOP counties, and Webb won in 2006 running as a Conservative Democrat.  This state stays McCain. 
  • Florida:  This state worries me the most, but I don’t see it turning blue.  It has been trending more Republican in recent years, and almost went to Gore in 2000 because of the early calling of the state before the polls had closed.  It was much less of a contested race in 2004, and I think the patterns will be similar this time. 
  • Ohio:  An important state, I think it goes to McCain, especially with the Coal-comment that has been picking up steam there since last evening.  Between the Coal industry and Joe the Plumber, this state goes McCain. 
  • Iowa:  A Bush state that I think will flip to Obama, primarily due to McCain’s opposition to ethanol subsidies. 
  • Pennsylvania: The surprise state of the election.  This state went to Hillary in the primaries, and between Obama’s “bitter clinger” remarks, his call to bankrupt the coal industry, and Murtha’s racist remark, it may be enough to flip this state to John McCain. 
  • Nevada:  This state will be close, but I think will ultimately come out Red. 
  • Missouri:  This state will also be close and end up in McCain’s column. 
  • North Carolina, Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, Georga:  Despite Main-Stream Media Hype, these are not toss-up states and will go McCain. 
  • Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan:  Some in the Conservative Blogosphere have talked up the possibility of these three states recently.  I don’t buy it, they are safely Obama.  If one of them goes Red, it is a major upset. 

Senate: The much-hyped road to 60 will not be reached.  Democrats will make gains in New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, Alaska, and New Hampshire, bringing their total to 56 seats. 

House:  Democrats make gains here as well, but not as large.  10-15 seats. 


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