Don’t Underestimate Obama

by Sal on February 2, 2010

in Election 2010,Election 2012,Politics

Watching the performance of Obama and the Democrats this past year, it’s easy to get complacent and assume that 2010 and 2012 are wrapped up.  What we as conservatives fail to see is that Obama does still appeal to a segment of the population, even if they don’t like his policies.  Case in point:  on Wednesday, according to Rasmussen, before Obama gave his State of the Union speech, he was at 46% approve, 53% disapprove, with a passion index (the strong approves – the strong disapproves) of -15.  Yesterday, Obama hit his post-State of the Union bounce, with Rasmussen’s poll having him at 49% approve, 50% disapprove, with a passion index of -4.  While I and my colleagues here at AOR felt that Obama came off as whiny and stuck-up, the speech apparently appealed to 3% of the population and changed their minds.  It remains to be seen if this bounce holds, but it needs to be taken into account.

Additionally, Obama supposedly remains personally popular (of which I can find no emperical evidence, but the state-run media says so, so it must be so).  If a speech to a joint session of Congress could yield a 3-point swing, Obama’s campaign skills should not be underestimated.  Now, with Obama entrenching and vowing to continue pushing his liberal, extreme agenda, I suspect that at least for 2010, the GOP will be able to achieve significant electoral gains.  If Obama pivots, however, and pulls a Bill Clinton by triangulating after the election, it may be difficult to defeat him in 2012 barring a complete disaster of an economy (which is still quite possible in my mind).

The point is, it is crucial that we as Conservatives do not get complacent and let our guard down.  Obama and the Democrats can be defeated, but it is going to require us to put in the same effort that we used against health care and for the Scott Brown election.  The wind is at our backs, but one cannot underestimate the power of the Presidential bully-pulpit, and the supposed personal appeal of this President.

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UNRR February 3, 2010 at 7:30 am

This post has been linked for the HOT5 Daily 2/3/2010, at The Unreligious Right

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