The Dynamics of 2010

by Sal on April 14, 2010

in Election 2010,Politics

Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics (no Conservative by any means) has an article up comparing the upcoming mid-term elections to previous midterm election results relating to three factors:

  • A poor economy
  • An overreaching majority party
  • A previous wave election that swept in the majority

Most midterm elections that see modest to major gains for the minority party see one or two of those three events occur.  The only times that all three of those events occurred in one midterm election cycle were in 1938, 1894, and 1874.  In each of those elections, the party out of power picked up 79, 125, and 96 seats respectively.

Trende also discusses how Obama has severely damaged the Democrat party brand built up by Clinton.  Agree with the assessment or not, there is a perception out there that Clinton was a “New Democrat” who helped brand the Democrat party as a sort of libertarian party – fiscally conservative while socially liberal.  Obama is in the process of shattering that myth in grand style, which may lead to Democrat minority status for a long period of time.

I don’t know if I agree with Sean’s assessment of the situation (my prediction as of now is still Republicans +60), it is a worthwhile read and shows that a 100+ seat pickup is not out of the realm of possibility, unlikely though it is.

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