N’Obama in 2012 is Unrealistic

by Ryan on June 6, 2010

in Culture,Economy,Election 2010,Election 2012,Health Care,Law,Media Bias,Nature,Politics

Some believe, including the much-cited article by Peter Ferrara at the American Spectator, that the current political climate surrounding President Obama will ultimately force him to either resign or make him politically unable to run in the 2012 Elections.  Here’s the thought:  Obama’s got the oil spill and the deepening Sestak scandal to deal with, but on top of the new incremental health care taxes we’re going to start seeing, a VAT is on the way, Art Laffer’s Crash of 2011 is approaching, as well as a private-sector-jobless recovery to contend with.  It’ll be too much for Barry come November 2012.

I disagree with some of those assumptions, especially on Sestak.  I hate saying this, but in 1998 and 1999, our culture demonstrated that it was willing to accept one set of laws for us and another set of laws for our leaders.  If it was found that you purposefully lied under oath to a federal judge in a probe where you were the accused, then told others to lie too you’d go to jail.

Oh, but you say that the federal law is quite explicit about no jobs-for-favors in the Sestak Affair.  It’s also explicit about perjury and obstruction of justice.  I hate saying it, but the Sestak Affair is likely to turn into a “right-wing annoyance” the President will ignore, while the press pushes to “move on” with “real” news.

However, I do think that the oil spill will begin to do real damage.  The Bush Funk that was established over years of negative news had people not liking Bush, but many couldn’t tell you exactly why — just vague sound bites about “War for Oil” or “Katrina” or whatever.  This spill has the potential to do that to Obama.  James Carville coming out and ripping Obama means more to the political future of Obama than a dozen Sestaks.  It means that Obama may potentially have a primary challenger in 2012; a rematch of 2008 when Hillary comes back to take her rightful place.  Remember, if the Dems had the same primary system as the Republicans, she’d already be President.  I still think Obama will win the nomination and likely lose to whatever Republican emerges.  Then again, if the Republicans get Congress this year and become Democrat-lite or compromise with Obama too much, then a Tea Party candidate could split the Republican vote, leading to a damaged Obama getting reelected.

It’s all too early to tell and I think the optimistic view that Obama’s the new Nixon is too unrealistic and anecdotal at this point.

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