The Fall Campaign Begins with Slight Obama Edge

by Ryan on September 8, 2012

in Economy,Election 2012,Politics

There are now less than 60 days left until Election Day and the polls are very tight with Obama having a slight lead over Mitt Romney in the RCP average.  Rasmussen shows a discernible Obama bounce from his convention;  after being down by two to Romney last week, Obama’s up by two today.  In both Rasmussen and RCP, Obama is still below 50%, dangerous territory for an incumbent.  Plus, McCain got a bounce from the Republican convention back in 2008, sporting a five-point lead over Obama and keeping the race pretty tight until the financial collapse.

Since clinching the nomination this year, I’ve noticed that the last three times Romney slipped in the polls, he was showing a low profile:  his vacation after the Obamacare decision;  his messaging issues while being accused of murder and felonies before picking Paul Ryan;  and now as the Dems had the stage all last week.  Romney and his war chest will be in full effect pretty soon, lots of anti-Obama films will be released this Fall, and the debates will give Romney an opportunity to stick it to Obama on national TV, so these numbers are subject to change.

At the end of the day, turnout will be the key.

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