Romney Should Be Worried

by Ryan on September 17, 2012

in Economy,Election 2012,Media Bias,Politics

We are 50 days out from the most important election of our lifetimes.  The contrast is about as stark as any since 1984, with two futures staring us in the face:  a future toward inevitable bankruptcy and decline or a future where we try to avoid that.  Obama has the worst jobs record since the 1940s, the Mideast is in complete upheaval due to Obama’s naive stance on foreign policy, America just got downgraded by Egan-Jones, and an impending fiscal cliff faces the nation in January — whoever is elected, he’ll be inheriting a really huge mess.

Yet, Romney is currently down 49-46 in the latest RCP average.  Those on the right will complain about all the skewed polls with justification.  I do feel that the left knows how much the RCP average is respected by pundits, so individual firms have been manipulating numbers with ridiculous sampling, augmenting Obama’s numbers incorrectly to present an air on inevitability for Obama’s reelection as a way stymie GOP turnout.  Clever.  Possibly effective.

I’m convinced Romney should be worried.  The press turned a story about how our terrible unpreparedness in the Mideast led to the death of a US ambassador into a coordinated hit-piece about an alleged Romney gaffe.  Politico is running a piece today about how the Romney campaign “stumbled,” as if to imply that a Romney loss is already assured.  Creating the impression of inevitability is important, and Romney is on the verge of losing that chance for good.

Using the 270towin website, I’ve played with the map and as of today I could easily see the election 332-206 to reelect Obama.  Romney should be winning with those numbers in reverse!  My sense is that the election is at a point where it could pull away from Romney regardless of the polling bias.  He needs to run a campaign with the media we have not the one he wants, nor can he simply let things mosey along until the debates and expect a real momentum shift.  Romney needs to stay in the news, hitting the Obama record hard daily, so that skewing polls won’t even help this terrible President.

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