Sal’s 2012 Election Prediction

by Sal on November 6, 2012

in Election 2012

I have a hunch.  I have a hunch that the polls are under-representing the dissatisfaction with the current administration, the lack of enthusiasm for Obama, and the support and enthusiasm for Romney.  Add to that so-called “statisticians” like Nate Silver who muddy the waters even more, and you have most people expecting anything from a narrow to comfortable Obama win.  I just don’t see it.  As Ryan pointed out, we are in the worst economic crisis in our nation’s history.  No incumbent has ever won reelection with the type of unemployment that we have.  Many have lost for less.  So how do I see it breaking down?

I see Romney comfortably winning Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida, and Obama winning Nevada, Michigan, and Minnesota.  I think Romney will get narrow victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, leaving Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

I think Wisconsin flips to Romney.  With Walker’s support and the ground game in the state, Romney will win it.  With this, he wins the White House (with 277 Electoral Votes).  He can even lose either Iowa or New Hampshire in this scenario and still win.

I am less sure about Ohio, but I am going to give it to Romney.  There’s a lot of pent-up anger in the state about jobs, coal, and Hurricane Sandy.  Romney will win, just by a hair.

The big surprise of the night is going to be Pennsylvania.  Things are looking good there, the enthusiasm for Obama is down, the state has been electing Republicans to statewide office recently, and even Bob Casey’s seat is in jeopardy.  I’m going to go out on a limb and call this one for Romney as well.

Final Prediction:  PV:  Romney 51 to Obama 48; EV:  Romney 315 to Obama 223

My electoral map.

 

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