Chinese Century? Maybe Not.

by Ryan on May 9, 2013

in Economy,International Relations

In real numbers, last year China’s GDP was around $8 trillion, while ours was about $15.7 trillion.  Based on that pattern many believe that statistically China’s economy will surpass the size and scope of United States by 2017… but something may get in the way of that forecast:  China itself!

This article comes to the conclusion that China’s 30-year boom is exhausting itself, and that without serious free market reforms or risky American-style credit and debt experiments, it will soon face serious hard times.  Add in the demographic changes surrounding an aging population in China and the future for China looks smaller, not bigger.  Plus, there are fewer peasants to force into the factories and less demand during the current world-wide economic slump.  The Chinese Politburo also believes that the September 2008 crash validates the high levels of state control on the China’s economy, stymieing any chance for real reforms.

I would feel a lot better about a rising China if they were more like us — free markets and all.  It seems that from at least one person’s perspective, in order for China to take the world’s economic mantle China will have to be more like us.

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