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The Town Hall Debate Toss-up

October 17, 2012

Last night, President Obama and Governor Romney faced off in their second Presidential debate.  This town hall-style debate format was moderated by CNN’s Candy Crowley and featured questions she selected from Gallup’s idea of “uncommitted voters.“  When it was over both sides seemed to have accomplished their goals:  no sluggish Obama and Romney held serve. [...]

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Unemployment Held Steady at 8.3%… or did it?

March 9, 2012

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, February’s unemployment rate held steady at 8.3%, with the U6 underemployment number dropping to 14.9%. Using more consistent methods of data gathering, Gallup has February’s number at 9.1% with underemployment at 19.1%. If the BLS counted the people who’ve dropped out of the job hunt, their unemployment figure [...]

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January 7, 2011

December’s unemployment numbers were released today and on the surface the direction looks positive:  we’re down to 9.4% unemployment from 9.8% in November.  Good news. The bad news is that much of the decline is due to people simply dropping out of their job search altogether.  When the popular “U3″ number changes its denominator, sometimes [...]

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Final Enthusiasm Gap Favors GOP

November 2, 2010

During an off-year election, when turnout isn’t as high during a Presidential year, the enthusiasm gap between the parties often makes the difference.  That was true during the Republican Revolution of 1994 and the Democrats’ thumping of George W. Bush’s Republicans in 2006.  But what about this year?  According to Gallup (I know, but Rasmussen [...]

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Reasons for Optimism

October 30, 2008

One can only judge future elections based on trends that have been determined in previous elections.  With five days to go until lection day, I am becoming increasingly optimistic.  There is still a good chance that Barack Obama will win and be our next President (ugh), but there is also reason to be optimistic and [...]

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Gallup Poll Statistical Madness

October 16, 2008

The Gallup tracking poll, although flawed in some ways, is also one of the less political of the mainstream polls, and fairly accurate.  However, this year they’ve introduced a new wrinkle.  As well as its traditional likely voter metric, they are introducing a new “Expanded” Likely voter metric to “take into account higher turnout among [...]

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Gallup The Shark

October 8, 2008

Some polls are scientifically valid.  Others are not.  At no time is that more obvious when the major polls not only show different numbers, but are also moving in different directions.  Earlier today, Sal gave us an excellent synopsis of both today’s tracking polls and their trends.  After his post, Gallup published its tracking poll [...]

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