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An Analysis of the Generic Congressional Ballot

April 9, 2010

Nate Silver at takes a look at the generic congressional ballot, and puts forth some statistical projections of how many Congressional seats the Democrats could be slated to lose this November based purely on historic trends and current poll results.  He takes four measurements into account: Current RCP Average Generic Congressional Ballot:  2.3% Republican [...]

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Obama Has No Coattails

March 1, 2010

Longtime readers of Axis of Right will know that we are very picky when it comes to polling firms that we trust.  We base our analysis on polls not on just the fact that it is a new poll or a poll in our favor (we will usually avoid getting too excited about a CNN [...]

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Chuck Schumer Approval Rating Below 50%

February 2, 2010

Disclaimer:  This is a Marist poll, and does not fall in the usual Rasmussen/Mason-Dixon/IBD-Tipp axis that falls under reliable polls for Axis of Right (I am considering adding Suffolk polls, at least for myself, as reliable for New England).  Still, a poll that puts Sen. Chucky Schumer (D-NY) at below 50% shows that even he [...]

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NRSC Epic Fail: Crist and Rubio Tied

December 16, 2009

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, as chronicled here in the past, endorsed RINO Charlie Crist over Marco Rubio, stating that Rubio could not win.  Yet now, in the latest Rasmussen poll, Rubio and Crist are tied in the GOP primary race and both lead Democrat Kendrick Meek in the general election.  The difference between Rubio [...]

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Even CNN Sees the Writing on the Wall

December 10, 2009

CNN released a poll today… Yes, yes.  I know, it’s CNN.  A poll that can’t be trusted.  A poll so liberally biased that it should be discarded, ignored, and thrown out into the garbage like documents from ACORN.  Which makes this poll even more interesting, because even a poll from CNN shows that ObamaCare is [...]

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It’s not Snoweing in Maine

November 10, 2009

The move to rid the party of RINOs is continuing, and this time showing its face in Maine.  Sen. Olympia Snowe, recently giving her tacit support for ObamaCare and the Porkulus bill, is not popular among her party in the state.  Consider these stats, obtained in a recent PPP poll: A plurality of Republicans disapprove [...]

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Purple Is Trending Red in Virginia

October 11, 2009

Virginia has been described in recent years as a purple state trending blue.  In the last decade, the state has trended left in its statewide offices.  By 2008, the Governorship and both Senate seats had been lost to the Democrats in what had been at one time a reliable Red state.  The 2008 Presidential election [...]

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Americans Feel Less Safe Under Obama

July 14, 2009

A new IDB/TIPP poll says that only 26% of Americans feel that Obama’s policies have made America safer, while 28 % feel he has made us less safe and 41% feel his policies have had no impact on our safety.  By contrast, when Bush left office, 49% felt that he made America safer, even with [...]

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The Impact of Zogby’s Poll

March 24, 2009

Zogby is poised to release a poll today which will show O’s approval rating at 50-50.  Now, I will be the first to say that I don’t trust the results of Zogby’s polls any more than I trust the results of a SeeBS poll or Washington Post/ABC poll, even if like this one, it does [...]

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Obama Still Defies the Odds

March 6, 2009

Odds are that a President who has done more than any single President in our history to rattle the markets and obliterate retirement accounts every time he opens his mouth would not be very popular.  However, Obama remains very high in the polls despite his War on Capitalism.    Michael Boskin, writing in the WSJ Online Oped had this to say about [...]

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What If All the Polls, Pundits, and Predictions Are Wrong?

November 4, 2008

Keeping the Polls / Pundits / Predictions all in Perspective.  Interesting reading, if anecdotal.  Some hope on this election day. I am not running for President. You, the gentle reader, are not running for President. The only two people who are running for President, Obama and McCain, are going to states and sending advertising money [...]

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Get Out and Vote!

November 4, 2008

Today is election day, andarack  it is important to everyone to get out and vote.  Today’s vote is the only poll that matters, so don’t let any polls, predictions, or pundits get you down.  Just to boost confidence a bit, the polls have been wrong before, and can be wrong again.  In 1980 (hat tip [...]

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Is Minnesota in Play?

November 3, 2008

Some recent polling data from SurveyUSA has McCain within the margin of error in Minnesota, with Obama only leading by 3 points, 49-43.  Could this state be in-play?  Are we all going to be surprised by the final election map on Tuesday night?  This is going to be interesting.

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The Ground Game is On!

November 2, 2008

One of the big reasons Bush won in both 2000 and 2008 was a successful Get-out-the-vote ground game.  Jim Geraghty at National Review Online’s campaign spot posted some notes from his mentor, known as “Obi-Wan Kenobi”, who has some insights into how the ground game is going in the battleground states.  The notes should help [...]

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Reasons for Optimism

October 30, 2008

One can only judge future elections based on trends that have been determined in previous elections.  With five days to go until lection day, I am becoming increasingly optimistic.  There is still a good chance that Barack Obama will win and be our next President (ugh), but there is also reason to be optimistic and [...]

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Inaccurate State Polls

October 20, 2008

Many websites have done a great job of dissecting national polls to determine how reliable they are. Because of these efforts, polls conducted by the Washington Post, Newsweek, CBS, etc. have been exposed for the garbage they are. Unfortunately, state polls have not been as heavily scrutinized. Motivated by my own curiosity, I recently looked [...]

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There’s Hope in the Wind

October 18, 2008

Everywhere you lck Oook in the Drive-By Media, they are already celebrating the Obama victory. It will be a landslide many say, akin to Reagan’s 1980 sweepto defeat incumbent President Jimmy Carter. Yet, if you look between the lines, there are reasons for hope and optimism pointing to a possible McCain victory. Over the last [...]

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Gallup Poll Statistical Madness

October 16, 2008

The Gallup tracking poll, although flawed in some ways, is also one of the less political of the mainstream polls, and fairly accurate.  However, this year they’ve introduced a new wrinkle.  As well as its traditional likely voter metric, they are introducing a new “Expanded” Likely voter metric to “take into account higher turnout among [...]

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Polls Tightening – Movement Towards McCain

October 8, 2008

There is reason for optimism for McCain supporters.  The last couple of days of polling show movement towards McCain.  This is especially interesting in regards to the tracking polls, as they take a multi-day rolling sample.  As is my standard policy, I am ignoring polls that track only registered voters, such as the Gallup tracking [...]

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Looking Bad for Obama

September 15, 2008

It is beginning to look bad for Barack Obama.  The last three days of Rasmussen polling have John McCain at 49-50% for the first time since Obama became the presumptive Democrat nominee.  The Rasmussen poll is a 3-day rolling tracking poll of Likely voters, and the polling occured after the Sarah Palin interviews with Charlie Gibson.  As most political [...]

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