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Real Clear Politics

August Not Likely to Be Quiet

August 4, 2012

It’s August 4, which means as of today (President Obama’s 51st birthday) there are 94 days left until the election.  Usually, August is a quiet month in politics — Congress is in recess, Presidents usually go on “working” vacations, and the polls tend to chip away slightly at incumbents before settling one way or another [...]

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McCain Leads in the Polls: A Bounce or a Surge?

September 8, 2008

Real Clear Politics has, for the first time all summer, McCain beating Obama by 2.9% when all major polls are averaged together.  Some outliers even have McCain up by as much as 10 points! However, this is the important question for me at this juncture: is this just a typical convention bounce of about 6-8 [...]

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Snapshot Polls Post-RNC

September 7, 2008

Things must have been really bad for the Dems last week: some are beginning to bring up race as the reason why Obama might lose again.  The latest Gallup Poll has McCain up by three (48-45%), which includes Palin’s speech.  Obama’s still up by 0.8% in the RCP average, but that includes a few ridiculous pro-Obama outliers. Tomorrow [...]

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Obama Would Win Europe

March 8, 2008

…And that’s one reason why I hope he’ll lose in America! I was thumbing through my usual cites for something to post this morning when this piece posted on RCP emerged and struck a very dissonant chord with me. Guy Sorman’s “Europe Loves Obama” piece was hard to read since I wasn’t too sure if he was being tongue-in-cheek [...]

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