Posts tagged as:

State Polls

Reasons for Optimism

October 30, 2008

One can only judge future elections based on trends that have been determined in previous elections.  With five days to go until lection day, I am becoming increasingly optimistic.  There is still a good chance that Barack Obama will win and be our next President (ugh), but there is also reason to be optimistic and [...]

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Inaccurate State Polls, Continued

October 23, 2008

A few days ago, I posted on a number of inaccurate state polls coming out of Pennsylvania and Virginia. The poll samples in question showed Obama leading both states by double digits, but contained a far greater percentage of Democrats than historically showed up on election day, even in elections that Democrats won by landslides. [...]

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Inaccurate State Polls

October 20, 2008

Many websites have done a great job of dissecting national polls to determine how reliable they are. Because of these efforts, polls conducted by the Washington Post, Newsweek, CBS, etc. have been exposed for the garbage they are. Unfortunately, state polls have not been as heavily scrutinized. Motivated by my own curiosity, I recently looked [...]

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Looking Bad for Obama

September 15, 2008

It is beginning to look bad for Barack Obama.  The last three days of Rasmussen polling have John McCain at 49-50% for the first time since Obama became the presumptive Democrat nominee.  The Rasmussen poll is a 3-day rolling tracking poll of Likely voters, and the polling occured after the Sarah Palin interviews with Charlie Gibson.  As most political [...]

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